Warm-up

Let's see what comes to mind — don't worry about getting it perfect.

Start with what you already know. Complete this sentence:

"I texted her twenty minutes ago and she said she'd just got on the train, so she be here any minute."

SPEAK

Say two guesses about where a friend or family member might be right now — but say them with two different levels of confidence, so I can hear the difference between them.

Listen in on this conversation

Ben: Where's Priya? She was supposed to present first.

Aiko: No idea. She might just be stuck on the tube — it's chaos out there this morning. Or she could well have forgotten; she's done it before.

Look again at "might just be stuck" and "could well have forgotten." Both are guesses, but they don't sound equally sure of themselves. Which one sounds like the more considered, heavier guess? Say your idea out loud before you check.

Check your idea CLICK
"Could well have forgotten" is the weightier guess — well adds confidence, as if the speaker has a real reason to think so (she's done it before). "Might just" does the opposite: just shrinks the guess down to something modest and tentative. Tiny words like "well" and "just" are doing real work — that's exactly what today is about.
Today: fine degrees of certainty — about now (must, can't, may well, might just, could well), about the past (must have, can't have, should have, would have, might/could have), and about the people you know (had better, would rather, may as well, bound to, likely to, supposed to, meant to, and stressed will) — so you can judge, guess and describe with real precision.

Judging the Present

How sure are you, right now? Five small words carry five different amounts of confidence.

Spot the pattern

Three guesses about what's true right now:

Before you check: "can't" and "must" don't really mean "impossible" and "obliged" here — so what ARE they doing?

Check the pattern CLICK
All three are guesses about the present, not facts — but each one signals a different amount of confidence. Can't = I'm sure it's NOT true. Must = I'm sure it IS true. Might just = a modest, hedged guess. The modal isn't about ability or obligation here at all — it's a confidence dial.
can't + be → certain something is NOT true
must + be → certain something IS true
may well / could well + be → a confident, reasoned guess
might just + be → a modest, hedged guess

Your turn

1. Marco grew up by the coast and swam every morning for years.

Reasoned guess about him now: "So he be a strong swimmer."

2. The lights are on, the car's in the drive, and you can hear music playing.

Near-certain deduction: "Someone be home."

3. "I haven't checked, so I could be wrong, but the office ___ be closed already — it's gone six."

SPEAK

Think of someone you know quite well. Say one thing you're almost certain is true about them right now (must / can't be...) and one thing you think is probably true, based on what you know of them (may well / could well be...).

Guessing the Past

You didn't see it happen — but you can still sound confident (or not) about what did.

Spot the pattern

Three guesses about something that already happened:

What changes in the grammar when you're guessing about the past instead of now?

Check the pattern CLICK
You add have + past participle after the modal. The meanings shift a little too: "should have told me" isn't a guess at all — it's a comment on what didn't happen but ought to have. "I'd have cooked more" imagines a different, unreal result. Same building blocks, several different jobs.
must + have + past participle → certain it happened
can't + have + past participle → certain it didn't happen
should + have + past participle → it didn't happen, and that's the problem
would + have + past participle → an imagined result, not what really happened
might / could + have + past participle → maybe — not sure

From a plain guess to a past deduction

"I don't know for sure, but I think he left."
→
"He must have left."

Your turn

1. Jake's desk is empty and his coat's gone.

Deduction: "He left early."

2. The photo shows snow on the ground, but it never snows here in July.

Logical impossibility: "So it been taken this summer."

3. "We waited for an hour and Diego never showed up. Looking back, I think he ___ told us he wasn't coming."

SPEAK

Think of a time recently when something didn't go to plan for you or someone you know. Say out loud what you think must have happened, and one thing that should have happened but didn't.

Expectations, Habits & Preferences

For advice, likelihood, plans that don't always happen, and the things people just always do.

Spot the pattern

None of these use a single modal word like "must" or "will" for the future — so why do they feel like modals?

Check the pattern CLICK
They carry the same kinds of meaning as true modals — warning, near-certainty, typical behaviour — even though the grammar looks different: 'd better + bare verb, is bound to + infinitive, and a stressed will + bare verb for something that's just typical of a person, not really about the future at all.
had better (not) + verb → strong advice, with a consequence
would rather + verb → preference
may as well + verb → a weak, "nothing better to do" decision
be bound to + verb → near-certain, inevitable
be likely to / unlikely to + verb → probable / improbable
be supposed to / be meant to + verb → expected, by rule or plan (doesn't always happen)
will / would + verb (stressed) → typical, characteristic behaviour

From a strong modal to a warning with a consequence

"You really must leave now — it's getting late."
→
"You'd better leave now — it's getting late."

Your turn

1. The milk smells strange.

Warning with a consequence: "You drink it, or you'll be ill."

2. Everyone's saying it's the best film of the year.

Prediction based on evidence: "Given the reviews, the film win an award."

3. Every time — no exceptions. Which sentence best shows this is a typical, mildly annoying habit, not just a neutral fact?

SPEAK

Describe a rule or a piece of advice using "had better." Then describe one habit of someone you know well using stressed "will" — the kind of thing that's just typical of them.

Your Turn to Talk

Time to use all three areas — present, past and habits — in one real story.

The situation

Think of someone you know well. Something recently didn't go to plan for them — they missed something, forgot something, or didn't show up when expected. (If nothing comes to mind, invent one.)

Tell the story out loud for one minute. Try to cover:

01:00

Now put it in writing

Write a short account (3–5 sentences) of the same situation. Try to include at least one form for a present guess, one for a past guess, and one for an expectation or habit — the checker will tell you which ones it finds.

Mix It Up

Real life doesn't sort itself into tabs. Everything's mixed together here — you decide.

Fix the mistakes

Each sentence has one grammar mistake. Rewrite the whole sentence correctly.

1. "She would rather to walk than take the bus."

2. "He must have went home early."

3. "The train is supposed arrive at nine."

4. "You had better calling the doctor if it gets worse."

Which form fits?

5. The pavement's bone dry and there's no sign of rain anywhere. "It ___ rained here last night."

6. "I texted her twice and called once, but no answer at all — she ___ have her phone on silent, or she's just really busy."

SPEAK

One-minute challenge: describe a colleague or housemate who's famously unreliable. Say what they're probably doing right now, what must have happened last time they let you down, and one thing that's just typical of them. Use the timer above if you like the pressure.

What Do You Remember?

First, from earlier lessons

1. Basic guess, nothing fancy: "I don't know exactly where she is, but she be at the gym — she usually goes on Tuesdays."

2. Say it out loud first: what's the real difference between "I don't know where he went" and "He must have gone home"?

Compare with a possible answer CLICK
The first is an honest admission that you don't know. The second is a conclusion — modal + have + past participle — built from evidence, even though you didn't see it happen yourself. That's the whole idea behind today's past-guessing forms.

Now, today's grammar — fresh sentences, no looking back

3. Every window in the house is dark and there are two days of post piled up by the door.

Near-certain deduction: "The family away."

4. Grandma's plant is completely dead, and she's normally so careful with it.

Past deduction: "She forgotten to water it while she was in hospital."

5. It's happened every single year for as long as you can remember.

A typical habit: "Dad burn the sausages at the barbecue."

Think back

Which of today's three areas — reading someone's present situation, guessing about the past, or naming a habit — did you find easiest? Say why you think that one worked for you.

Can you now...?

At the start we said: fine degrees of certainty about now, about the past, and about the people you know. Tick what's true:

Anything you didn't tick — go back to that tab and try the exercises once more. They'll still check your answers.