B1 • Lesson 22 of 75

Hedging & Probability

Express certainty with nuance

💭 Opinion & Argument
📖 Do Prep First →

The Spark: The Problem with "Will"

At A2, you learned to give opinions. But opinions about the future are different.

Compare these responses to the question: "Do you think electric cars will replace petrol cars?"

❌ Too Certain

"Yes, electric cars will definitely replace petrol cars."

Sounds arrogant - you can't know the future!

✓ Nuanced

"I think electric cars will probably replace petrol cars, but it might take longer than people expect."

Shows intelligence and humility!

Hedging means softening your certainty. It's a sign of sophisticated thinking, not weakness.

Today you'll learn: A scale of probability words to match your actual certainty level.

Micro-Skill: The Probability Scale

Different words show different levels of certainty. Match your words to how sure you really are:

The Certainty Scale

100%
will / definitely
90%
will probably
70%
should / likely
50%
might / could
30%
might not / unlikely
"will probably" (90% sure) Click to expand
USE
When you're quite confident but not 100%
FORM
Subject + will probably + base verb
NOTE
"Probably" goes AFTER "will"

Examples:

"Prices will probably continue to rise."

"She'll probably get the job - she's very qualified."

🎤 NOW YOU TRY

Make a 90% prediction: "What will happen to the price of houses in your country?"

"should" / "is likely to" (70% sure) Click to expand
USE
Reasonable expectation, not guaranteed
FORMS
"should + verb" OR "is likely to + verb"
FEEL
Professional, measured

Examples:

"The economy should improve next year."

"Remote work is likely to become more common."

🎤 NOW YOU TRY

Make a 70% prediction: "What will happen to tourism in your country?"

"might" / "could" (50% sure) Click to expand
USE
When it's genuinely uncertain
FORMS
"might + verb" OR "could + verb"
DIFFERENCE
"Could" = more theoretical possibility

Examples:

"AI might replace some jobs, but it might create new ones too."

"This could lead to big changes in how we work."

🎤 NOW YOU TRY

Make a 50% prediction: "What might happen to traditional shops in the future?"

"perhaps" / "I wouldn't be surprised if" (Variable) Click to expand
USE
Softer suggestions
"PERHAPS"
More tentative than "maybe"
ADVANCED
"I wouldn't be surprised if..." = sophisticated hedging

Examples:

"Perhaps we'll see more people moving to smaller cities."

"I wouldn't be surprised if cash disappears completely in 20 years."

🎤 NOW YOU TRY

Use "I wouldn't be surprised if..." to make a prediction about technology.

Guided Practice: Calibrating Certainty

For each prediction, choose the RIGHT level of certainty based on how confident you really are:

Prediction 1

🌍 Environment
Will most countries switch to renewable energy by 2050?
How certain are you? Choose your words!

Your answer: "I think most countries..."

💡 Use "will probably" (90%), "should" (70%), or "might" (50%) - pick what matches YOUR certainty

Prediction 2

🤖 Technology
Will AI be able to do creative jobs like writing and art?
Think about what you really believe - how sure are you?

Your answer: "In my opinion, AI..."

💡 Try "might" for uncertainty, or "I wouldn't be surprised if..." for a sophisticated hedge

Prediction 3

🏙️ Society
Will more people work from home permanently after the pandemic?
What does your experience tell you?

Give a FULL answer with hedging (30+ seconds)

💡 Try combining hedges: "It will probably... but it might... Perhaps..."

Free Production: The Prediction Game

Make predictions about each topic. Match your language to your real certainty!

Speaking Timer

5:00

Your Predictions:

🚗 Transport
What will transport look like in 20 years?
Consider: flying cars? Self-driving? Public transport?
💼 Work
What jobs will be most in demand in 2040?
Think about technology, healthcare, environment...
🌍 Global
What will be the biggest challenge facing humanity in 50 years?
Climate? Population? AI? Something else?
🏠 Lifestyle
How will the way people live change in your lifetime?
Cities? Families? Housing? Community?

Goal: Use different probability words for different predictions. Not everything is "will probably"!

Recall Zone

Lesson 21 + A2 Review

Click to test your memory!

From Lesson 21: What phrase shows you're considering multiple perspectives?

"There are several ways to look at this..."

Great for complex questions with multiple viewpoints.

From A2 Lesson 14: What are 3 ways to express preferences?

"I'd rather..."

"I'd prefer..."

"I'm more of a... person"

From A2 Lesson 8: How do you give a reason for your opinion?

"...because..."

"The reason is..."

"This is why..."

🎤 Combined Practice

Make a prediction using HEDGING + EXTENDED THINKING + REASONS:

"Do you think people will still read physical books in 50 years?"

Try: "There are several ways to look at this... I think people will probably... because..."

Self-Check

📋 Today's "I Can" Statement

I can use hedging language to show different levels of certainty

How confident do you feel?

1 = Need more practice | 5 = I've got this!

Quick Review: The Probability Scale

✓ 100%: will / definitely

✓ 90%: will probably

✓ 70%: should / is likely to

✓ 50%: might / could

✓ Softer: perhaps / I wouldn't be surprised if...

Your Mission Before Lesson 23:

Listen for hedging language in news, podcasts, or conversations. Native speakers hedge ALL THE TIME. Start noticing!

← Lesson 21