How likely is it? How bad would it be? Two questions that decide what hospitals, airlines and engineers worry about first.
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Ten items. Say your answer out loud before you reveal it.
Read the sentence, guess the meaning of the word in bold, then reveal.
The three words are: likelihood · consequence · precaution. Read each meaning, say the word, then reveal.
One missing word fits every phrase in the group. Say it, then reveal.
Read each part. After it, answer the quick check from memory, then discuss one question.
Imagine you run a small hospital. This morning your list of worries includes a broken lift, a nurse shortage at night, a cupboard of medicines with similar-looking boxes, a leaking roof, and a computer system that is ten years old.
You cannot fix all of them today. So which one do you start with? The loudest complaint? The cheapest repair? The one in yesterday's newspaper?
Through the twentieth century, industries that could kill people — mining, chemicals, nuclear power, aviation — learned an uncomfortable lesson. You can never remove every hazard. What you can do is be honest about which hazards deserve your money and your attention first. And for that, you need to ask about each one not one question but two.
1. Why can't the hospital fix everything?
2. Which industries learned this lesson first?
3. How many questions does each hazard need?
1. There isn't enough time or money — you have to choose.
2. Dangerous ones: mining, chemicals, nuclear power, aviation.
3. Two.
The two questions are these. How likely is it to happen? And how bad would it be if it did?
Answer both — usually on a scale from low to high — and every hazard lands in a box on a grid. The bottom-left corner holds things that probably won't happen and wouldn't matter much. The top-right corner holds things that are likely and would be catastrophic. That corner gets your money, today.
The grid also solves an old argument. People disagree loudly about danger, because they are usually arguing about different questions. One person is thinking about likelihood (“that has never happened here”), the other about consequence (“if it did, someone would die”). The grid makes them answer both questions separately, and suddenly the argument becomes a conversation.
Its power is that it works for a nuclear plant, a school trip or a wedding.
1. What are the two questions?
2. Which corner of the grid gets attention first?
3. Why do people argue about danger, according to the story?
1. How likely is it? How bad would it be?
2. The top-right: likely and catastrophic.
3. Because they are answering different questions — one thinks about likelihood, the other about consequence.
The grid has a famous weak spot: the box where something is very unlikely but would be catastrophic. A huge flood. A new disease. A bank collapsing. Because the likelihood is low, these risks sit quietly in a corner of the page for years — until the year they don't.
There is a second problem. The numbers look scientific, but somebody chose them. Give the same hazard to two teams and they will often score it differently, especially when the person scoring it is also the person who would have to pay for the repair.
So good teams use the grid as the start of a conversation, not the end of one. They add a rule: anything that could kill someone gets attention whatever its score. And they record the near misses, because a near miss is the cheapest warning you will ever get.
1. Which box is the famous weak spot?
2. Why can two teams score the same hazard differently?
3. What extra rule do good teams add?
1. Very unlikely, but catastrophic.
2. Because the scores are human judgements — and the scorer may be the person who would pay for the repair.
3. Anything that could kill someone gets attention whatever its score (and they record near misses).
Score each hazard twice. Along the bottom: how likely is it? Up the side: how serious would it be? The colour of the box tells you how fast to act.
A language school is planning a day trip to the mountains. Which box does each risk belong in? Choose, then check.
1. Medium — very likely, but only a minor consequence.
2. Extreme — likely (it nearly happened already) and possibly fatal.
3. High — likely, and the consequences are serious.
4. Medium — fairly likely; painful but not severe.
5. Low — catastrophic, but so rare that no plan is possible.
6. Low — it may well happen, but it is easily fixed.
The scores are opinions in disguise. Two honest teams often score the same hazard differently.
The rare-but-terrible box. Low likelihood pushes real dangers off the page for years.
It can become paperwork. A finished grid is not a safer school — the actions are.
This grid runs on probability. English has a rich set of ways to say how likely something is — far beyond maybe.
Write one word in each gap.
1. The road is closed, so the bus is to be late — I'd say ninety-nine per cent.
2. Older machines are more to break down than new ones.
3. There's a slight of frost tonight, so cover the plants.
4. She may refuse the offer — she's turned down two already.
5. It is that the flight will be cancelled; the storm is enormous.
1. bound (or sure)
2. likely
3. chance
4. well
5. likely
Rewrite each sentence with the words in brackets, keeping the meaning.
1. It will probably rain during the walk. (likely) → Rain
2. There is almost no chance of a meteorite. (unlikely) → A meteorite
3. Perhaps the bus will break down — it has before. (may well) → The bus
4. With no map, we will certainly get lost. (bound) → Without a map, we
1. Rain is likely (to fall) during the walk.
2. A meteorite is extremely unlikely (to hit us).
3. The bus may well break down.
4. Without a map, we are bound to get lost.
Now score three risks in your own life or work: one likely, one unlikely, one you are bound to face.
Use the grid on something real. Choose a task, start the timer, and talk. Use the probability language from the grammar tab.
Think of your home, workplace or journey to work. Name three risks and score each one on both questions.
Name something very unlikely that would be very serious for you. What, if anything, do you do about it?
Someone dismisses a danger you take seriously. Explain your scoring and try to change their mind.