A decision under uncertainty

Should we…?

You are being asked whether to commit — when you cannot be sure how it will turn out.

Go deeper · the full lesson · 50 minutes · C1Try It Small, or Do It NowOpen the lesson →

The lens

  1. Can we undo it? If not, the bar for acting rises.
  2. Can we try it small first? A test only helps if it can show us something we do not already know.
  3. What does waiting cost? If waiting is cheap, there is no hurry. If the cost keeps growing, there is no time for a test.

It can lead to

  • Pilot It can be undone, it can be tested, and waiting is cheap.
  • Stage it Hard to undo, but it can be done in steps, with a checkpoint between them.
  • Decide now Waiting costs more than a wrong move, or there is nothing to test.
  • Decline for now It cannot be undone or tested, and the case is not strong enough.

The thinking, step by step

A worked example

Should we move the whole company to a four-day week?

  1. Undo it? Mostly. It can be reversed, though staff will not enjoy losing it.
  2. Try it small? Yes: one or two teams, for a fixed period, with the measures agreed in advance.
  3. Cost of waiting? A little in recruitment, not much else.
  4. So: a pilot.

How it might soundI’d recommend a pilot rather than a company-wide launch. First, we can reverse it if it fails, and a pilot would show us the effect on output and on customer cover. Second, waiting a few months costs us very little. I’d change my view if the early results showed customers waiting longer for answers.

Same words, opposite answer

A batch of our medicine may be contaminated. Should we recall it?

  1. Undo it? A recall can be reversed. A harmed patient cannot.
  2. Try it small? Not in time: the risk is now.
  3. Cost of waiting? It grows with every hour.
  4. So: decide now.

How it might soundI’d recall it today. The harm cannot be undone, there is no time for a trial, and every day of delay adds risk. I’d review the decision as soon as the test results arrive.

The same words, “Should we…?”, and the lens points the other way. Seeing that is the skill.

Where it breaks. When there is no time to test, a pilot is just a delay. That is when the fast tools matter more.

Practise it

Thinking tools

Real cases

Talk it through

  1. Think of a decision you made that you could not undo. How did you decide, and would you decide the same way today?
  2. Which decisions in your work could be tried small first, and which could not?
  3. When is waiting the right decision? Who tends to push for speed, and why?
Then say it
Land itpoint · reason · stopPause ita beat, not an “um”Hold itfirm and calm