In the mid-1990s a technology analyst drew a curve on a whiteboard to explain why every new technology seems first a miracle, then a disappointment — and only later useful.
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Ten items. Say your answer out loud before you reveal it.
Read the sentence, guess the meaning of the word in bold, then reveal.
The three words are: plateau · breakthrough · bubble. Read each meaning, say the word, then reveal.
One missing word fits every phrase in the group. Say it, then reveal.
Read each part. After it, answer the quick check from memory, then discuss one question.
In 1994 Jackie Fenn joined Gartner, a company that advises businesses about technology. The World Wide Web was just moving from a research curiosity to a global phenomenon, and part of her job was to judge which new technologies would really matter.
Looking back at earlier waves — artificial intelligence, genetic engineering, personal computers — she saw the same pattern again and again: a flood of excitement, then disappointment when the technology failed to live up to it, and only later real, useful adoption. She sketched the shape on a whiteboard.
In 1995 she published it in a research note called “When to Leap on the Hype Cycle”. Its advice was practical: “Organizations should select the optimal time to begin investing in a new technology by matching their risk tolerance against a technology's progress along the hype cycle.”
1. What was part of Fenn's job at Gartner?
2. What pattern did she notice?
3. What did her 1995 note advise?
1. To judge which new technologies would really matter.
2. Excitement, then disappointment, then real and useful adoption.
3. To choose when to invest by matching how much risk you can accept to where the technology is on the curve.
Fenn expected it to be a one-off. But the following year, clients asked for an update with the latest technologies. In the 1996 version, the peak of the curve featured Java, internet terminals and the World Wide Web. Hype cycles became a regular Gartner report.
The curve has five named stages. A breakthrough — the innovation trigger — starts the story. Publicity climbs to the peak of inflated expectations. When early products fail to deliver, interest falls into the trough of disillusionment. Slowly, people work out what the technology is really good for: the slope of enlightenment. Finally comes the plateau of productivity, when it is simply used.
The names were memorable enough to escape. The term “hype cycle” and its stages are now used far beyond Gartner, in the marketing of all kinds of new technologies.
1. Why did Fenn update the curve in 1996?
2. What was at the peak in 1996?
3. Name the five stages in order.
1. Because clients asked for an update.
2. Java, internet terminals and the World Wide Web.
3. Innovation trigger, peak of inflated expectations, trough of disillusionment, slope of enlightenment, plateau of productivity.
The hype cycle has its critics. It is not really a cycle, they point out, and it is not scientific: there is little data to prove that technologies actually follow it. Its stages are named after feelings — expectations, disillusionment, enlightenment — which makes it hard to say where a technology really is.
In 2024 The Economist tested the idea against years of Gartner's own reports. It concluded that only a small share of technologies — perhaps a fifth — moved from innovation to excitement to despair to widespread use. And of the technologies that fell into the trough, it estimated, six in ten never rose again.
Fenn herself has said the danger is people being “reactive to the hype cycle, so they're rushing in when the hype's up and abandoning it when the hype's down again.” Perhaps the curve's best use is not as a prediction at all, but as a warning about ourselves.
1. Give two criticisms of the hype cycle.
2. What did The Economist find in 2024?
3. What did Fenn say the danger was?
1. Any two: it isn't really a cycle; it isn't scientific — there's little data behind it; its stages are named after feelings, so it's hard to place technologies.
2. That perhaps only a fifth of technologies follow the whole curve, and six in ten of those in the trough never recover.
3. People rushing in when the hype is up and giving up when it's down.
The curve shows expectations over time — not how good the technology really is. The gap between the two is where the money, and the mistakes, are made.
Here are six moments in the life of an imaginary technology — home robots. Which stage of the curve does each one describe?
1. Trough — the excitement has collapsed.
2. Trigger — a breakthrough starts the story.
3. Slope — people are learning what it is really good for.
4. Peak — expectations far above reality.
5. Plateau — it is simply used.
6. Peak — money follows the excitement, not the results.
It isn't a law. Many technologies don't follow the full curve, and some never come back from the trough.
Feelings, not facts. Expectations are hard to measure, so placing a technology on the curve is a judgement.
It can become an excuse. “It's just in the trough” can be said about a technology that has simply failed.
Hype is full of predictions — and later we look back on them. To talk about the future as it looked from the past, English uses was/were going to, would and was/were supposed to.
Use the verbs in brackets with would, was/were going to or was/were supposed to. More than one answer may be possible.
1. The company promised that the new phone (last) a whole week on one charge.
2. We (launch) the app in May, but the tests went badly.
3. The robots (do) all the housework, but they couldn't even climb the stairs.
4. Everyone thought the shares (keep) rising for ever.
5. I (buy) one, but then I read the reviews.
1. would last
2. were going to launch
3. were supposed to do (or were going to do)
4. would keep
5. was going to buy
Rewrite each prediction as a sentence about the past, starting with the words given.
1. “This technology will change everything.” → Experts said
2. “We are going to sell a million units.” → The company announced that it
3. “It will be in every home within five years.” → Magazines predicted that it
4. “The price will fall soon.” → We thought
1. …this technology would change everything.
2. …was going to sell a million units.
3. …would be in every home within five years.
4. …the price would fall soon.
Now tell your teacher about something you were going to do this year but haven't — and something you thought would happen but didn't.
Talk about hype — and about your own reactions to it. Choose a task, start the timer, and talk.
Choose three technologies you know — from electric cars to an app on your phone. Place each one on the curve and explain why.
Describe something you were very excited about — a job, a hobby, a city — that disappointed you. Did you later find its real value?
Your company wants to invest in a new technology. Argue for leaping early, or for waiting.